Monetary policy

Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek has ruled out scenarios regarding the real depreciation of the Turkish Lira after the upcoming local elections.

"We do not have an exchange rate target. We are implementing a policy set which makes the lira attractive," Şimşek said in a televised interview on March 4.

Turkey's annual inflation rate climbed to 67.07% in February, exceeding expectations and keeping up pressure for tight monetary policy amid strong rises in food, hotel and education prices, official data showed on Monday.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, with markets eyeing any nudge towards an interest rate cut as inflation weakens.

The ECB, expected to hold rates at a record 4%, is navigating a tricky path between keeping rates high long enough to contain inflation while not cutting too late as price pressures ease quickly.

In February 2024, inflation in the Eurozone slowed down to 2.6% on an annual basis from 2.8% in January, but slightly more than anticipated, as preliminary data from Eurostat indicates.

Every month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% in February compared to the previous month when it decreased by 0.4%.

The Turkish Central Bank's net reserves are likely to turn positive in 2024, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

In a note on the Central Bank's latest rate decision, Goldman Sachs said that it expects rising foreign inflows and a narrower current account deficit to pull the rate of Turkish Lira appreciation further inside the forwards in 2024.

The current economic policies will continue to be implemented after the upcoming elections, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek has said.

Türkiye will hold local elections on March 31.

As widely expected, Türkiye's Central Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 45 percent after eight straight months of rate hikes.

Conventional policies will be employed to curb inflation, Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek has said, reiterating that there will be a steep fall in inflation in the second half of 2024.

Inflation expectations for 2024 increased slightly from 42.04 percent in January to 42.96 percent in February, according to the Central Bank's Survey of Market Participants.

The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation, however, declined from 39.1 percent in the January survey to 37.78 percent this month.

Amidst global economic uncertainties, the European Commission offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bulgaria, forecasting growth in the country's economy alongside a decrease in inflation. In its winter economic forecast, the EC projects a 2% growth rate for Bulgaria in 2023, highlighting the resilience of the nation's economic activity despite facing various challenges.