Turkey bids farewell to $9.6 billion in hot money in 2015

Turkey witnessed a capital outflow of around $10 billion in 2015 amid domestic, regional and global risks under the shadow of the skyrocketing rise in the dollar's value against almost all local currencies, but 2016 may be worse if the risks persist 2015 was quite unusual for both Turkey and the world, leaving a series of risks behind for 2016. Amid escalating economic, political and geopolitical risks, around $10 billion in hot money has departed Turkey, the largest amount since the 2009 crisis. The question is whether this huge amount of money will ever come back. Or will we see a further outflow? If so, how much should we expect? 

What will be the value of the U.S. dollar against the Turkish Lira in 2016 after rising 24.3 percent in 2015? The crucial factor here will be the amount of foreign capital. Foreign investors will decide upon global and regional risks, which are quite high. 

What to expect in 2016

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said 2016 might be "disappointing" for the global economy. She said the prospect of rising interest rates in the United States and an economic slowdown in China were contributing to uncertainty and a higher risk of economic vulnerability worldwide.

According to the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, Martin Wolf, at least one of the G-20 countries will request an IMF financial assistance program in 2016. Turkey is not in that bad a position. Does he mean Brazil? To him, the number-one candidate among all developed countries is Italy. In the emerging markets league, Argentina, Russia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia may knock on the IMF's door for help...The realization of such a pessimistic scenario will depend on how the global risks will trigger. 

US, eurozone...