Monetary policy

Inflation expectations for 2024 increased slightly from 42.04 percent in January to 42.96 percent in February, according to the Central Bank's Survey of Market Participants.

The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation, however, declined from 39.1 percent in the January survey to 37.78 percent this month.

Amidst global economic uncertainties, the European Commission offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bulgaria, forecasting growth in the country's economy alongside a decrease in inflation. In its winter economic forecast, the EC projects a 2% growth rate for Bulgaria in 2023, highlighting the resilience of the nation's economic activity despite facing various challenges.

New Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan has said that the bank will maintain its tight monetary stance until inflation falls to levels consistent with its target, while the bank has kept its inflation targets for 2024 and 2025 unchanged.

Two US Federal Reserve officials indicated Wednesday that the nation's central bank is on track to tackle inflation, but that it is still too soon to begin lowering interest rates.

Türkiye's annual inflation rate increased from 64.77 percent in December last year to 64.86 percent in January, the data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) showed on Feb. 5

The month-on-month consumer price inflation, which has been declining since August last year reserved course last month, but this was widely anticipated.

In a recent announcement, the Bulgarian National Bank has confirmed that the base interest rate for February will stand at 3.79%, maintaining the status quo from January. This decision follows a marginal reduction of 0.01% made in December 2023.

The economic program the government is implementing is working and yielding results, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek has said, noting that the monthly inflation is declining.

The Central Bank has changed reserve requirement ratios in a move that aims to encourage shift to Turkish Lira deposits.

The reserve requirement ratios for FX-protected accounts with maturities up to six months will be reduced from 30 percent to 25 percent, the bank announced on Jan. 30.

The Central Bank of Türkiye has hiked its key interest rate by another 250 basis points to 45 percent, also signaling an end to its aggressive tightening cycle.

The targets in the Medium-Term Program (MTP) announced by the government after the elections are realistic, says Alpaslan Çakar, president of the Banks Association of Türkiye, adding that there is a correlation between all the figures.