One other loser in elections: survey companies

It is an unchanging topic in Turkey after every election, comparing the actual results with the predictions of pre-election public opinion polls. However, the role of the survey agencies has never triggered such a major debate in any recent election before as they did in the presidential elections held last Sunday, Aug. 10.

This time, one other aspect is added to the classic debate of how close the opinion polls were to the actual results; such claims as to whether or not these research companies were manipulation tools to influence election results were also discussed. A widespread belief is that many voters did not bother to go to the polls, affected by the survey results, assuming the results were already determined. At least, this is the main opposition party’s official argument. It would not be a mistake to say this debate will branch out and grow in the coming days.

Difference between findings and results

First of all, we have to highlight this reality: The difference between the figures reached in the majority of the pre-election opinion poll surveys and the results of the elections is quite high. Among survey companies, there were some that exaggerated Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s votes up to the range of 57 and 58 percent. There are also those that had very close predictions and in that way, which were correct in their estimations, but they were few.

One of the companies the polls of which were mistaken about was KONDA, the one Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu openly accused of staging a “perception operation” in his interview with Aslı Aydıntaşbaş from daily Milliyet. The executive of the company Tarhan Erdem publicized their projections exactly three...