About inflation and interest rates
At the level of the global economy, focusing on the US, the dominant question is whether we are going to see lower interest rates in the current year. The answer is no, if we look at the history of the Fed. Undoubtedly, we are not on the brink of another stretch of hyperinflation like that of the painful 1965-1982 period of rising prices for goods and services in the US. However, the Fed should raise interest rates well above the current rate of inflation and keep them there for at least a year. Everyone can recall the old saying "Don't fight the Fed." It has been a central tenet of the empirical wisdom of financial markets for decades. Based on this, if one bet against the Fed, the stereotype was that their positions would continue with losses. Now, it is becoming clear that this wisdom is not valid as the Fed is fighting inflation and the markets are fighting the Fed.
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