Towards a Possible Peace in the South Caucasus?

In a statement made on May 1, 2024, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Kasym Jomart Tokayev welcomed the agreement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia to hold negotiations at the level of foreign ministers to prepare a peace treaty, at the initiative of the Kazakh side.

The Kazakh initiative takes place in a complex global geopolitical situation, unlike any seen in the decades since the outbreak of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This complexity will also influence the course and even the outcome of the negotiations.

Another important element is the position of the directly involved parties. It is noteworthy that Azerbaijan has the advantage resulting from its success in the recent military conflict with Armenia, which practically led to the exodus of the majority Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh. Additionally, Azerbaijan is economically far superior to Armenia.

Under these conditions, it is very difficult to achieve a fair and sustainable peace. However, starting from the premise that there is a sincere desire for peace among the parties, we believe that, in order to succeed in the peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Almaty, there are several key factors that must be taken into account:

Cooperation and political will: Both parties must demonstrate a clear political will and cooperate constructively to reach a sustainable agreement. Flexibility and reciprocal compromises will be essential.
Addressing all key issues: Negotiations must comprehensively address all aspects of the conflict, including border demarcation, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, security, and humanitarian issues. No topic should be avoided.
Trust and transparency: Building trust...