Turkey and the fog of war in Syria

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is confident that the Turkish military and its allies in Syria have the capacity to take the town of Al Bab - a stronghold of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) - and move on to Manbij to expel fighters attached to the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which is linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

Statements from the Turkish General Staff also indicate that the "Euphrates Shield" operation in Syria against ISIL and the Peoples Defense Forces (YPG), the military wing of the PYD, is making progress. In a recent statement it said PYD/YPG targets in northern Syria were hit, "killing 100 terrorists." 

International reports regarding developments in northern Syria, which are not always in line with statements issued by Ankara, however, are causing confusion in minds. What is clear is that Al Bab has not been taken yet by the Turkish supported Free Syrian Army (FSA). It is also not clear how Turkey plans to move on Manbij.  Should it do so, it is will come up against the U.S. 

Washington insists that it is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - which it supports - that are in Manbij. It maintains that this force is not just made up of Kurdish fighters but also includes Arab, Assyrian, Turkmen, and even Armenian and Circassian fighters. 

As this confusion was reigning, we learned from Hürriyet reporter Sevil Erkuş a few days ago that the FSA's move on Al Bab has slowed down because Turkish jets, which have been providing air support to the FSA, have not been able to fly in Syrian airspace since Oct. 22. 

The reason is reportedly a warning from the Syrian regime, which said that after Turkish jets bombed YPG targets in Syria that any Turkish jet entering its airspace would be...