What will happen on June 7?

In just a week, Turkey will have its general elections. Most Turks know the details of this ambitious race, but some outsiders seem a bit confused. So, I decided to give you a brief 101 today.

All polls show that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will win as usual, but this time things might not be as bright for them as before. Polls suggest that the party has lost quite a significant sum from its heydays in 2011-2014, when its votes were over 50 percent. Now, the estimates are between 39 to 44 percent of the votes. The Republican People's Party (CHP) is expected to follow with some 26-28 percent, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is expected to follow with some 15-18 percent. 

Besides these percentages, the definitive matter is the number of seats. Turkey's parliament has 550 seats, and how many of them will be taken by the AKP is a crucial question. Here are three basic options:

1) AKP below 276 seats: In order to form yet another one-party government, the AKP needs to win half of the seats in the Turkish Parliament plus one, which makes 276 seats. If the AKP cannot win that many seats, it will still be the most powerful party, but not powerful enough to form a government of its own. That would lead Turkey to a coalition government, which has been unseen since 2002, in which the AKP will have to ally with another party to form a government. (At this stage, opposition parties say that they would never think of a coalition with the AKP; but they could begin have to second thoughts on the morning of June 8.) 

2) AKP between 276 to 330 seats: In this outcome, the AKP will safely form a government of its own under the prime ministry of Ahmet Davuto?lu. But it will fall short of having enough seats to be able to...