Why 'Independent America' is risk #1

Independence is the core American value. George Washington warned future US leaders to avoid foreign entanglements, presidents Wilson and Roosevelt avoided the world wars for as long as possible, and later presidents have vowed to respond to foreign aggression "at a time and place of our choosing." President-elect Donald Trump has now declared a new form of US independence, one that's likely to transform US foreign policy. Each January, Eurasia Group publishes our list of top global political risks for the coming year. For 2017, there are many reasons why "Independent America" is our choice for risk #1.

Trump campaigned on a pledge to "make America great again" but also on promises to build an "America first" approach to the world. That means resolute rejection of the idea, central to US foreign policy since 1945, that America is the indispensable leader in world affairs....