BNB: Bulgaria's GDP to Rise by 2.2% in 2024, with Average Annual Inflation at 3%

In its latest macroeconomic forecast released on Tuesday, the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) anticipates a 2.2% increase in Bulgaria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2024, compared to 1.8% in 2023.

The projected economic expansion is expected to be primarily driven by the positive influence of domestic demand, with net exports forecasted to make a negative contribution. The BNB foresees domestic demand receiving a boost from heightened private consumption due to increasing real labor incomes, a surge in investment activity, and elevated government consumption.

Looking ahead, the bank predicts real GDP growth to reach 3.3% in 2025 before moderating to 2.6% in 2026, with the trajectory largely influenced by the profile of public investment.

Regarding inflation, the BNB forecasts a deceleration to 2.3% by the end of 2024, with average annual inflation expected to stand at 3%. The service and food groups are anticipated to make the most substantial positive contributions to overall inflation by the end of 2024.