It might be Gül after all

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may have been nominated for the presidency, but the question of who will lead the Justice and Development Party (AKP) after him still remains uncertain. Whoever becomes leader, and consequently prime minister, the AKP will clearly shy away from a power struggle within in the party in the lead-up to the 2015 general elections, as AKP deputies are aware that this would play into the hands of their enemies.

One can assume, therefore, that unity within the party will be largely maintained until after the election. The problem is what happens after that. This is also Erdoğan’s dilemma. He has been saying that an elected president and an elected prime minister will make Turkey soar.

This presupposes a president and a prime minister that are in tune. Given his openly declared intention to use presidential powers to the hilt, what Erdoğan needs is a compliant prime minister. But this has to be a person who does not appear subservient in order to avoid giving AKP deputies the impression that they are only in Parliament to rubber stamp the president’s directives.

No doubt, many AKP deputies will be more than happy to do this for the sake of their personal interests. It is hard to conceive, however, that all will be happy. Erdoğan, however, needs a unified AKP after the elections, as it would enable him to change the Constitution so he can legally use the executive powers he plans to use.

This is the point at which eyes turn to incumbent President Abdullah Gül, even though he has declared that he has no political plans for the future. It seems both Erdoğan and the AKP need Gül for the sake of the party’s future simply because he has the capacity to work in harmony with...