Anastasiades' options

There appears to be a consensus both in northern and southern Cyprus, as well as among the international power brokers, that Cyprus talks might resume at the earliest in May, after the Turkish Cypriot presidential elections.

With weeks left to the Turkish Cypriot presidential elections, there will not be much change in Turkish Cypriot pro-settlement?s resolve, irrespective who wins. So far, it appears the election will not end in the first round of elections and the second bout will be between incumbent Ero?lu and Sibel Siber of the ruling socialists.

In southern Cyprus, on the other hand, not only economic prospects are unfavorable for the incumbent Nikos Anastasiades presidency, the president?s stubborn policies were not supported by any major political movements apart from his Democratic Rally (DISY) and a bunch of small nationalist, fascist or utopian parties. A two-day National Council ? an advisory council bringing all political leaders around one table ? meeting last week ended in dismal failure demonstrating absence of a credible ?national strategy? and only a restricted support for a painful bi-zonal, bi-communal federation. With his poor health, bad economic situation, political spectrum vastly in disarray and no pro-settlement vision, the Anastasiades presidency, even if could be forced to sit at the talks, would be a castrated one, unable to deliver any deal.

The Anastasiades? entire strategy and its supporter ? the web of tiny nationalist-opportunist parties ? is built on the assumption that ?by incurring a big cost to Turkey for the occupation, would force her to give up on a federation? and agree to abandon Turkish Cypriots to the mercy of Greek Cypriots in a unitary state under the full control of Greek Cypriots? Did not the...