Arbil is no Barcelona

Both Arbil and Barcelona are going to hold independence referenda in less than a month. Arbil set the date for Sept. 25 and Barcelona for Oct. 1. 

The former is on the independence of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from Iraq, and the latter on the independence of the Autonomous Government of Catalonia from Spain. Both Baghdad and Madrid are fiercely opposed to the plans of their regional governments. Despite the similarities however, it is worth pondering the considerable differences between them.

The per capita GDP of the 7.5 million Catalans in 2011 was around $27,900, while that of the average citizen of Spain was $22,900. The per capita GDP of the 8.3 million Iraqi Kurds was around $3,773, while that of the Iraqis on average was $4,600 dollars in 2011. According to the Rand Corporation's 2016 estimates, we need to subtract around $1,000 from the KRG per capita GDP after the referendum to account for the possible lack of income from disputed hydrocarbons. But regardless, one thing is clear: the Catalans increase the Spanish average while the Kurds decrease the Iraqi average.

The manufacturing industry is the main source of value creation in Barcelona and all of Catalonia, while construction is the major source of value in Arbil and in all of Iraqi Kurdistan, especially if you take out hydrocarbons. Catalonia lies on the Mediterranean and Barcelona, its capital, is a port city. Iraqi Kurdistan, however, is landlocked. 

The Catalan referendum is really only a concern for the Spanish government. Yet Arbil's referendum is a major concern for many other countries. U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis met with President Erdoğan this week and issued a statement asserting "both sides reiterated their commitment to the territorial...