Gray scenarios in Ankara backstage

White scenarios are almost clear as Turkey has only six days left until the crucial Nov. 1 re-elections, amid an ongoing decision-making process to bring an end to the Syrian civil war and its consequential immigrant crisis, which has started to hit the European Union.

Almost all public opinion surveys indicate an outcome similar to the June 7 elections. That is, a four-party parliament; despite the high hopes of President Tayyip Erdo?an and Prime Minister Ahmet Davuto?lu's Justice and Development Party (AK Parti), the Kurdish problem-focused Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) is not likely to be pushed below the 10 percent threshold.

Taking that as the highest probability, the AK Parti is now focused on producing a parliamentary majority (276 out of 550 seats) out of that combination, which is only be possible by a small margin, if it is possible at all.

AKP majority rule would be a relief for Erdo?an, who plans to exercise extensive executive powers as if the regime turns into a presidential one, assuming no objection will come from an AK Parti government.

If not, according to white scenarios, possible coalition combinations include the AK Parti with the social democratic Republican People's Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) or the HDP.

If there is no coalition, either through the failure of talks or through deterrent statements by Erdo?an, as was the case of after June 7 elections, Erdo?an could take the country to another re-election. Doable according to the constitution but not recommendable, taking into consideration the level of polarization in the country, which has also been struck by acts of terror by the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), with possible...