The Black Sea and fears of a domino effect

The prospect of rising tensions in the Black Sea after Washington's claim that a Russian fighter jet downed a US surveillance drone near Crimea is naturally a cause of major concern. Most observers have so far focused on eastern Ukraine. However, not far from there, dark clouds are gathering from the Carpathians to the Caucasus and from the Sea of Azov to the Bosporus Strait.

The geopolitical stakes are high in the Black Sea also. The future will largely depend on the fate of Ukraine, as well as the aspirations of Russia and Turkey. Hence the undeclared war in and above the Black Sea. The drone incident was just one episode in this conflict.

In Moldova, prolonged political volatility, which the pro-Western government says is instigated by Russia, could lead to dangerous instability.

Meanwhile, thousands of people took to the streets of Georgia's capital,...