EU referendum is a possibility in Turkey

The question of whether Turkey could really bring back capital punishment has now been followed by the question of whether Turkey could really hold a referendum on the European Union.

If the latter question had been put to me a month ago, I would have said "no," just as I would have once ruled out the possibility of reinstituting the death penalty. 

I have been proven wrong recently for ruling out a number of developments that ended up happening. I did not expect Brexit to happen, just as I did not expect Donald Trump to be elected. My only consolation is that I am not alone in having made the wrong bets. 

From now on, expecting anything to happen - even the unimaginable - seems like a fair bet to me.

France could succumb to the far right and Marine Le Pen could well get elected in the presidential election next spring. The Dutch, who I still believe have one of the most democratic, pluralistic and tolerant cultures in Europe, could vote for a racist and xenophobic party in the general elections next year. 

By the same token, Turkey could reinstitute capital punishment, which would likely put an end to its EU accession process. Or it could take the EU membership issue to a referendum, which might end up with the public expressing a clear wish to end the relationship.

Many think it would be irrational for Turkey to land a deadly blow on its membership process. But rationality is not currently a guiding force in the world. If it was, we would not have seen the Brits - known to be among the most rational societies with solid common sense - vote to leave the EU. 

Who is to blame for all this? Certainly not the ordinary citizen. Rather, we should point the finger at short-sighted politicians. Playing to the...