Orban’s Victory Speech Gives Clues to His Future Strategy

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban waves to his supporters during the governing Fidesz-KDNP party's event after the general election and national referendum on the child protection law in Budapest, Hungary, 03 April 2022. EPA-EFE/ZOLTAN FISCHER

The National Election Office said Fidesz would have 135 seats, a two-thirds majority, and the opposition alliance would have 56 seats.

'A victory so big that it can be seen even from the Moon'

The Hungarian prime minister, who has had a difficult relationship with the European Union, started his victory speech on Sunday night by declaring: "We have scored a victory so big that it can be seen even from the Moon, but definitely from Brussels."

This remark came only weeks after the European Commission decided to hold off launching a new mechanism to cut budget funds to Hungary over concerns about the deteriorating rule-of-law situation in the country. The European Parliament's decision to trigger Article 7 proceedings was made back in 2018. The EU has also withheld money from the COVID-19 recovery fund.

Teneo's Central and Eastern European advisor, Andrius Tursa, believes that the threat of losing much-needed EU funds and mounting fiscal challenges at home could present Orban with a dilemma.

"On the one hand, the big election victory vindicates his fiery rhetoric and anti-Brussels stance. On the other hand, the projected budget deficit of 4.9 per cent of GDP in 2022 already seems unrealistic due to the slowing economy and expansive pre-election spending… As a result, the government will be forced to look for solutions and might be more willing to compromise with the European Commission to unblock 7.2 billion euros in grants from the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility,...