ANALYSIS: Which map will appear on April 16?

Here are four maps of Turkey that I will present for your perusal. These maps are colored according to the "no" and "yes" vote results of the constitutional referendums held in Turkey up until now.  

First map: 1961 Constitution 

The constitution drafted after the military coup of May 27, 1960, went to a vote on July 8, 1961. The outcome was 61.7 percent "yes" and 38.3 percent "no." 

The map of Turkey according to the "yes" and "no" votes in 1961 looked like this: The Aegean city of İzmir and a couple of more provinces surrounding it, Adapazarı - east of Istanbul - and a small region in the Black Sea said "no" to the constitution prepared by the military regime. 

The rest of Turkey and those regions that predominantly vote for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) today voted "yes" to the military regime's constitution at that time. This constitution remained in effect for 21 years with some amendments.  

Second map: 1982 Constitution 

The constitution drafted by the Sept. 12, 1980, military regime was put before the populace on Nov. 7, 1982. The outcome was 91.4 percent "yes" and 8.6 percent "no." This map of Turkey was a single color. All of Turkey said "yes" to the military regime constitution. This constitution has stayed in effect with various amendments up until today; in other words, for a period of 35 years. 

The AKP came to power according to this constitution; Tayyip Erdoğan became the prime minister when this constitution was in force.   

The third map: 1987 constitutional change 

The 1982 Constitution imposed a political ban on politicians who were active before the...