CHP is shooting itself in the foot

Some have been wondering what stopped Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the chairman of Turkey's social democratic main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), from challenging the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) to an early election on the night of the recent constitutional referendum, perhaps launching a tour of all the cities that voted "No" to President Tayyip Erdoğan's bid to consolidate all executive power.

Erdoğan's win on April 16 was certainly not a landslide. The "Yes" side prevailed with 51.4 percent of the votes, but not without strong objections. The Supreme Election Board (YSK) controversially changed the rules of casting ballots while voting was already underway, and without doubt the CHP had to question it on legal grounds.

It did that, but it focused only on the legal objection point, ignoring the political potential of what happened. The CHP's vote share has been floating around 25 percent for the last few elections. Under former CHP head Deniz Baykal it was around 21, and Kılıçdaroğlu only managed to raise this average by around 4 percentage points. 

But prior to the April 16 referendum, the CHP head was the only opposition leader able to campaign actively for "No." 

The co-chairs of the Kurdish problem-focused Peoples' Democratic Party (CHP), Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen Yüksekdağ, are currently in jail under state of emergency conditions. Thousands of their local party officials are also removed from their positions or in jail, preventing them from carrying out a proper "No" campaign. 

In ordinary times, the HDP's voters make up around 10 percent of voters in Turkey. What's more, in ordinary times the Nationalist Movement Party's (MHP) voters (around 11 percent) would not have divided between ...