Five Predictions About the Greek Elections

1. Alexis Tsipras will almost certainly not be the next Prime Minister.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in central Athens, Greece, 2019. Photo: EPA-EFE/YANNIS KOLESIDIS

His left-wing government suffered a heavy defeat in May, trailing the centre-right opposition New Democracy party by almost ten points. It was the largest difference that an opposition party has ever posted in European elections in Greece. Forecasts for Sunday's national elections predict a similar outcome.

Tsipras was at one time the symbol of the European radical left. But then he came to terms with Brussels and applied the creditors' "Memorandum", while on the diplomatic front he signed a bold, but politically costly treaty with North Macedonia.

The last European politician to praise the Greek Prime Minister was the same man Tsipras confronted during the dramatic negotiations of 2015, namely Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's former finance minister. The current president of the Bundestag described Tsipras as a "statesman" who had managed to resolve the thorny dispute over the name of North Macedonia despite the considerable political cost.

Along with the populism he has never ceased projecting, Tsipras has also tried to cultivate the image of a moderate politician, ready to seek a broad consensus.

It is a significant political accomplishment that his SYRIZA party, an acronym for Coalition of the Radical Left, which previously won only 4.6 per cent of the votes in the European elections, came to govern Greece in 2015. It has now established itself as one of the two major parties in the country.

The difference by which it will lose to New Democracy's Kyriakos Mitsotakis is crucial for Tsipras' future. For SYRIZA, its...