Turkey's president to endorse a double-track approach toward EU

"From Beirut to Tripoli, in many areas in the Middle East, Arabs have been campaigning on social media for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan," Janna Jabbour told France 24. 

"Why? Because for many in the Middle East, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan represents a hope to balance relations between the East and West. He is the leader to stand up to the West to say that the Middle East and Muslims are not subjugated by imperialist Westerners," she added. 

The polling companies' research in the coming days will show us whether the conservative/nationalist/pious bloc in Turkey's rural areas have voted for Erdoğan for the same reasons that Arabs have been campaigning for him. Whether they have voted for this or that reason, there is no question that Erdoğan's Europe-bashing politics has appealed to that bloc's sentiments. After all, those regions do not suffer directly from deteriorating relations with Europe; neither when there is a drop in economic activity nor when there is a drop in the number of incoming tourists. 

At any rate, it appears that Erdoğan personally enjoys around 40 percent of his core support base. In the absence of any other charismatic leader to challenge him, this core is ready to support him in a blindfolded way, whether he adopts a pro- or anti-EU rhetoric.

Yet, by pushing for a change from a parliamentary system to an executive presidency, Erdoğan might have complicated his political life. In the past, 30 percent of the votes were enough to land him as prime minister. In fact, it was with 25.9 percent of the votes that Erdoğan became the mayor of Istanbul in 1994, which became a major turning point in his political career. Now, he needs 50 percent plus one vote to be elected in the next presidential elections, which are expected to take...