Labour Pains in Central Europe

Data published by the Polish Ministry of Family and Social Policy at the beginning of June showed that just little over 185,000 of that total number were now formally employed in the country. About half of the refugees were doing unskilled labour, another 18 per cent were in office or other specialist work, 14 per cent were in industry and crafts, 11 per cent in sales and services, and 10 per cent were machine operators or assemblers, earlier data from the ministry showed.

When it welcomed in Ukrainian refugees, Poland at the same time opened up the labour market and enabled access to social services, counting on the idea that the newly arrived would be able to relatively quickly find their place in Polish society, with little need for specific government interventions.

That had been, after all, the case with the previous wave of Ukrainian migration to Poland. Before Russia's invasion in February, there were an estimated 1.3 million Ukrainians living in Poland, many of whom had come to the country after Russia's aggression in Ukraine began in 2014 and by now have secured jobs and are able to communicate in Polish and be self-reliant.

Poland could certainly use the extra labour. Eurostat data showed that Poland's unemployment rate stood at 3.0 per cent in April, compared with average unemployment in the EU at 6.2 per cent. And data published in May by the government showed that about 80 per cent of Poles of active age are in employment, which indicates "a hot labour market," explains Kamil Sobolewski, chief economist at Pracodawcy RP, the largest employers' association in the country.

These trends are showing up in very strong wage pressures, verging on a wage-price spiral. The average wage and salary in Poland's enterprise sector rose...